If California serves as example, Hispanic voters will play a crucial role in Texas when the state holds its primary next month.
On the Republican side, McCain has set out to win back the many Texan Latinos who voted for Bush in ’04 but have since turned away because of the party’s immigration stand.
On the Democratic side, it seems Obama is gaining ground and Hillary’s so called Hispanic “firewall” is looking more like a “fire-fence,” as documented by the Houston Chronicle based on IVR polls.
It appears that just as African American voters were turned off by the Clintons’ alleged “race card” tactics, Hispanics have also been taken aback with some of the Clinton campaign’s political maneuverings, most recently covered by Frank Rich in a New York Times op-ed.
In a state where Hispanics could make up nearly half of the 228 Democratic delegates up for grabs, both Clinton and Obama are serious about taking their message to Latino voters. Both candidates started airing Spanish-language ads this week and debates have been lined up including one televised on Univision.
Pundits argue Obama will do well with Hispanics under 40, particularly in urban areas like Houston and Dallas–cities where Black Mayors have come into office garnering a substantial chunk of the Hispanic vote. Obama would also do well in Austin, while Clinton will take the majority of Hispanic votes in places like San Antonio and South Texas.
Whether McCain or Obama can make inroads with Texas Hispanics is yet to be seen; on the night of March 4 we’ll have a clearer picture.
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